Rivers State Crisis: A Litmus Test for Tinubu Presidency, Nigeria’s Judiciary, others
The smoldering political crisis in Rivers State has erupted into a defining moment for Nigeria’s judiciary, the Ijaw ethnic nation, and the global community. At its core, this turmoil pitting Governor Siminalayi Fubara against his predecessor, Chief Nyesom Wike, now Federal Capital Territory Minister – exposes a battle over power, resources, and identity. Under President Bola Tinubu’s administration, widely accused of favoring centralized control and political godfatherism, the stakes are higher than ever.
The recent Supreme Court judgment halting statutory federal revenue allocations to Rivers State has only intensified the embarrassing spectacle, placing the judiciary’s credibility, the Ijaws resilience, and Nigeria’s democratic integrity under global scrutiny. For the Ijaws, resistance is not just a choice – for it’s a necessity.
A Judiciary on Trial
Nigeria’s judiciary, often hailed as the last bastion of hope for the common citizen, now finds itself at a crossroads. The Rivers crisis has laid bare allegations of judicial manipulation, with conflicting court orders and questionable jurisdictional shifts fueling distrust. The Supreme Court’s February 2025 ruling, which barred monthly allocations to Rivers local governments over the state’s failure to conduct constitutionally compliant elections, has been decried as a politically motivated assault on Governor Fubara’s administration. Critics, including human rights lawyer, Femi Falana, point to the judiciary cozying up to powerful figures like Wike – whose influence in Tinubu’s camp is undeniable – as evidence of compromised independence.
This judgment echoes a historical precedent, namely: In 2004, then-Lagos Governor Tinubu successfully challenged President Olusegun Obasanjo’s withholding of state funds, with the Supreme Court ruling it unconstitutional. Today, and quite unfortunately, President Tinubu faces accusations of hypocrisy, seemingly tolerating a similar overreach against the leadership of Rivers State under Governor Fubara.
The judiciary’s consistent failure to uphold the tenets and principles of federalism is, indeed, cementing the public perception that justice bends to the direction of the highest bidder, even in Nigeria’s apex and highest court of justice. What a dangerous and deafening precedent for a nation already grappling with massive electoral frauds and institutional decay!
The Ijaws Stand: A Fight for Survival
For the Ijaw people, who dominate Rivers State and the oil-rich Niger Delta, this crisis is existential. Governor Fubara, an Ijaw by all definitions of nativity, represents a rare opportunity for the Ijaws of Rivers State to assert their political voice after several decades of political repression and marginalization.
The Ijaw National Congress (INC), led by Professor Benjamin Okaba, has framed Wike’s alleged control of Rivers State – backed by Tinubu, as an attempt to stifle this Ijaw agency when he said that, “A slap on Fubara is a slap on the Ijaw nation.” Indeed, Okaba’s warning that any move to unseat the governor could ignite unrest across the region shouldn’t be treated with levity, or dismissed as an idle talk.
The Supreme Court’s decision threatens to choke Rivers finances, potentially crippling Fubara’s ability to deliver the dividends of democracy to his people. With oil accounting for roughly 25% of Nigeria’s GDP, the Ijaws see this as a calculated move to divert their wealth to federal cronies. Their history of militancy – once disrupting oil flows to demand equity – looms large. Resistance, they argue, is the only path to safeguard their rights and resources against a godfatherism that has long plagued Nigerian politics.
Tinubu’s Godfather Gambit
President Tinubu’s tenure as Lagos governor cemented his reputation as a master of political godfatherism, exerting influence over successors and state coffers. Now, critics allege he’s scaling this model nationwide, with Wike as the key enforcer in Rivers State. The crisis suggests a pattern: Tinubu’s muted response to judicial overreach and his reliance on Wike – a linchpin in his 2023 electoral victory – hint at a strategy to dominate Rivers State finances and politics. This sorry spectre clashes with Nigeria’s federal structure, where states should rightly control their destinies, and not serve as pawns in a presidential chess game.
The international community, eyeing Nigeria’s oil and regional clout, watches warily. A destabilized Rivers State could spell doom. The ripple effects will tear through West Africa, deterring investment and emboldening autocratic tendencies. Tinubu’s actions – or his inaction – seems to be at risk of painting Nigeria as a democracy in name only, but an animal farm in practice, where godfathers wilfully trump and stifle governance for ostensible selfish interests.
Supreme Court Judgment: Consequences Unfold
The February 2025 Supreme Court ruling has unleashed immediate fallouts. Local government operations in Rivers State is grounded. For, virtually all LGAs in the country rely on federal fund allocations to function effectively. Rivers LGs are no exception. The withdrawal of federal revenue allocation to Rivers LGs is sparking protests and fears of economic collapse in Rivers State. Fubara’s administration has appealed, but the damage is palpable. They include arson attacks on council secretariats post-October 2024 elections, signalling rising tensions, while the state’s 27 defected lawmakers – loyal to Wike – are pushing to impeach the governor, emboldened by the financial stranglehold, no thanks to the widely criticized Supreme Court Judgment.
Nationally, the judgment deepens distrust in the judiciary. If courts can be weaponized to starve states into submission, what hope remains for the fair resolution of disputes? Globally, it raises red flags about Nigeria’s stability, with oil markets jittery, and diplomats urging restraint. For the Ijaws, it’s a call to arms – peaceful or otherwise – to protect their stake in a federation that often overlooks them.
Why the Ijaws Must Resist
The Ijaws resistance of the goings-on buttresses their stand against a system that thrives on subjugation. Godfatherism, as epitomized by Tinubu and Wike, siphons power from the people, leaving communities like the Ijaws to bear the cost of elite enrichment. By defending Fubara, they challenge a judiciary tethering on the edge of irrelevance, and a presidency that prioritizes loyalty over law. Their fight is Nigeria’s fight: a demand for a democracy where votes, not patrons, dictate destiny.
Failure to resist risks a bleak future – like economic strangulation, political irrelevance, and perhaps, a return to militancy. Success could redefine Nigeria, forcing Tinubu to rethink his approach, and the judiciary to reclaim its soul. The world is watching! But it’s the Ijaws who must act. Rivers State as a whole is more than just a crisis. It is a clarion call. Will Nigeria listen?
Joel Dappa is the Publisher/Editor-in-Chief, Nigeria Today Newspapers, Lagos.
